Weekly Cryptocurrency Price Analysis: Ripple, Litecoin, IOTA, Bitcoin Cash, Stellar Lumens and other major coins
From the News
This week has been full of market moving events and attacks. Of course, Monero fork couldn’t escape our ears and the reason for the upgrade? Decentralization! It remains a fear that Bitmain ASIC miners would wreck havoc to Monero. Unfortunately, shortly after the fork, the Monero’s hash rate plummeted 80 percent from 1.2GH/s to 644MH/s before recovering slowly.
Monero hashrate after the fork is estimated to be around 15% from the original hash rate. That means there is around 85% of ASIC and botnets. I estimate that around 50% of ETH hashrate is from ASICs. And they are located on probably one location.
— Master of Disaster (@Moje_Cerke_Tata) April 6, 2018
The new coin, XMC is resistant to ASIC miners but as the fork reveals most validating nodes within its network were after all ASIC miners. Whether or not exchanges would support this new coin remains a subject of debate but what we all know is that normal GPU miners and small timers shall make money from this brave move.
On the same day, EOS released EOSIO Dawn 3.0 earlier than expected setting a solid foundation for EOS launch in June 2018. According to Sean Mitchell, Dawn 3.0 allows “blockchain critical logic to be updated by the community through consensus without requiring changes to the code-base.” In a nutshell, what this means is a consensus concerning on chain developments would be reached without necessarily forking.
Lead Developer Relations Engineer, Sean Mitchell explains the BIOS Architecture of EOSIO. "This change is really exciting for us because it enables blockchain critical logic to be updated by the community through consensus without requiring changes to the codebase." #EOSIO
— EOS (@EOS_io) April 6, 2018
While on it, Verge was hit by a 51 percent attack enabling a hacker to take control of the blockchain, mine coins and making away with 250,000 Verge coins. As a result of this, Verge decided to fork as a way of minimizing damage.
If you have been wondering why Bitcoin prices are resilient and rejecting lower lows then it must be confluent of activities around this coin. Right from George Soros’ U-turn and rumors that he actually invested in cryptocurrencies to the reprieve that India won’t be banning Bitcoin trading, after all, Bitcoin is finding support in the midst of all this incessant bears.
In my opinion though, movements in Japan should be a game changer. On April 8, we heard that the FSA will take a serious look at proposals to regulate and legitimize ICOs for the sake of investor’s interest and nurturing of this nascent industry. If that come to pass then the demand for BTC and ETH would be on the upside and we could see growth in the next months if at all ICOs become legal.
Technically, bears are in charge according to developments in the weekly chart. From our previous Bitcoin technical analysis, our forecasts were for lower lows and specifically breach of $6,500. However, that is not the case but still, the long upper wick suggests sell pressure.
In any case, potential resistance is between $7,500 and $8,000-the 61.8 percent
Fibonacci retracement level from recent Bitcoin high lows. If there is any sell stochastic signal within those levels, I expect sellers to take advantage and sell with targets at $5,000.
Many think Ethereum’s real threat is Tron and EOS, but is that really the case. Both of these coins continue to edge higher in terms of trading volumes and price.
My specific focus is EOS and how fast they are coming through when it comes fulfilling investor expectation.
With Dawn 3.0, we expect better EOS governance and most importantly, a solid platform before the DApp platform goes live in June this year. Will that drive ETH prices up? On the other hand, Tron is turning out to be a tough competitor with trading volumes temporarily eclipsing ETH this week and that’s why Justin Sun couldn’t stop tweeting.
TRON’s trading volume exceeded ETH today, now in 2nd after #BTC. 2018 will be a year of war between decentralized protocols, with #TRON and #ETH at the forefront. With our vision of a decentralized Internet and high-performance strategy, #TRON will win the war! #TRX $TRX pic.twitter.com/zAzbZWTkQH
— Justin Sun (@justinsuntron) April 6, 2018
Anyhow, the ETH technical chart is extremely bearish and after the week ending March 27 candlestick, traders should look for sell signals only. If you want to see why then check out that slice below $400 before week ending April 8 slow down.
We can see that ETH revival was indeed a bullish break out in the 4HR chart and since prices are ranging, I expect strong resistance at $450. Before then, the $100 range between immediate resistance line and March 27 highs of $550 should be a good area for searching selling opportunities. Overly, our ideal sell target is at $300.
There was positive news for Ripple in the course of last week. As if their declaration that there were working with more than 50 global banks wasn’t enough, news that Money Gram and Wal-Mart would be working on a new project, Wallmart2World. Remember, Money Gram is already testing Ripple xRapid payment system that guarantees fast settlements and cheap transactions. If all things are kept constant, then this could be a Ripple pump.
Walmart And Moneygram Partnership Could Pump Ripple (XRP) – https://t.co/4s9aWmifiQ
On Tuesday, April 3rd, Walmart and Moneygram partnered to launch a new global money remitting service known as Wallmart2World. This is good news for the Ripple (XRP) community for Moneygram had… pic.twitter.com/PdiyOhCHRK
— Mytrade Cryptocurrency (@mytradecrypto) April 7, 2018
When we check the charts, then we realize that even though there were attempts for higher highs, bears are still pushing prices down. On first glance, 50 cents is our region of interest and a key support at least for now.
Thing is, if there is further depreciation and break below 50 cents, 15 cents should be our next target. As such, I recommend sells and that means we wait till a stochastic sell signal prints anywhere between 55 cents and 60 cents.
BCH/USD (Bitcoin Cash)
To counter Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, there are talks within Bitcoin Cash community for further developments that would guarantee instant transactions and zero confirmation. If that is actualized then it’s a direct confirmation for LN and competitive edge for Roger Ver’s darling coin.
In the meantime, the slide continues. Even though Bitcoin Cash remain within a range mode in lower time frames, it is likely that this coin would move lower. From last week’s Bitcoin Cash technical analysis, our target remains at $300 but before selling, wait for stochastic sell entries at the $100 gap between $750 and $850 visible in our entry chart.
It’s about time that China comes clean about their stand on cryptocurrencies and blockchain in general. All we know is that the current head of PBOC is cryptocurrency and blockchain friendly so it came as no surprise that there are ongoing talks between Chinese officials and NEO/On-Chain. If something positive come out of it, then NEO and general cryptocurrencies could soar.
Officials of the Party committee of Science and Technology (Shanghai) visited Onchain office today and discussed their high expectations for using blockchain technology to serve different industries of the real world economy. pic.twitter.com/BAWP93dqE1
— ZHANG Keke (@caterina_zhang) April 4, 2018
On the flip side though, last week’s prices were stuck within a $10 range and our immediate support still lies at $40. Unless there is spike above $70, I recommend sells whenever a sell signal prints at key levels with targets at $40 and $25 if there $40 caves in.
Other than Abra’s Litecoin smart contract intervention, the listing of Litecoin at an Abu Dhabi’s trading firm and its partnership with Aliant payment systems are some welcomed development for Litecoin and Charlie Lee. This comes after last week’s LitePay mess which saw prices collapsing.
We're excited to announce that Aliant has partnered with the Litecoin Foundation, making us the first official Litecoin payment processor! https://t.co/jb2qC5B5vh
— Aliant Payments (@AliantPayment) April 5, 2018
As it is, bear pressure continues and what a nice inverted hammer that we are seeing in the weekly chart. Technically, that’s pure sell pressure meaning there is a strong reversal of recent Litecoin gains as bears step up their goals of hitting $90, the ultimate bear target. Basing our decision on our Litecoin technical analysis, this coin might appreciate and test $135, when that happens any bearish engulfing pattern that prints might be a perfect sell entry point.
After Trinity facelift, there was confirmation on April 4 by Peter Willi that an IOTA application that would facilitate storage and transaction of IOTA from in Ledger Nano S is ready for Beta testing. Of course, these two developments are the baby steps that IOTA needs if it’s to go mainstream. Topping this milestone is Microsoft announcement that is will invest $5B in IOTA in the next 4 years.
Community hero announcing Ledger Nano S beta he has been working on for awhile. https://t.co/VHf3sTCkRU
— IOTA (@iotatoken) April 4, 2018
Price wise, sellers are still in charge but failure to dip and close below $1 today should be a reprieve for IoT supporters. In my view, the recovery in lower time frames means buyers can actually buy this coin and target $1.50 or even $2.20 on the upside.
It’s ambitious but what I would like to point out is that IOTA might turn for the better if buyers maintain prices above $2.50 this coming week. Otherwise, trend traders can wait on the sidelines and sell whenever a stochastic sell signal prints anywhere between $1.50 and $2.20 anytime this coming week.
XLM/USD (Stellar Lumens)
Undoubtedly, IBM vouches for Stellar Lumens and with that, investors should stay put and wait for up-turns in the long term. That’s our expectation but most importantly, the listing of Stellar Lumens at CEX.IO should be positive because more people can now invest on this coin by purchasing the coin directly using their Visa or MasterCard credit cards.
Instant BUY for Stellar XLM directly with VISA or Mastercard NOW available:
Mobile apps for iOS & Android have also been updated to support deposits/withdrawals of Lumens.
— Stellar Lumens (@StellarLumens) April 6, 2018
On the price front, it’s evident that prices have been on consolidation for the better part of last month. Following that break below the middle BB by week ending March 18, prices have been on a range mode with prices oscillating between 27 cents and 17 cents. As such, I only recommend trading with the trend meaning any break below 17 cents should be welcoming for sellers who in turn should aim for 7 cents.
All charts courtesy of Trading View
Dalmas is a Cryptocurrency News Writer and Analyst. He’s passionate about blockchain technology and the potential of cryptocurrencies.