Weekly Cryptocurrency Price Analysis: Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Lumens, IOTA and Other Major Coins (March 11)
From the news
Roger Ver, one of the early Bitcoin adapters, has been riding the Bitcoin Cash Train over time. But citing reliable metrics that Bitcoin is on a decline, he continues to assert that Ethereum is likely to be the king of cryptocurrencies sooner rather than later.
According to Ver, issues of rigidity and transparency continue to plague the core team and that’s why transaction-wise, ETH continues to outperform that of Bitcoin. On the other hand, Ethereum developers continue to scale and address systemic issues amicably.
When it comes to speculations, there is none that affects Ripple prices than rumors of it being listed at CoinBase. These rumors resurfaced March 4, 2018, and temporarily pumped XRP prices before CoinBase were forced to issue a statement pouring cold water on an already hot market.
Talking of numbers, Telegram — despite resistance and the prying eyes of the SEC — is likely to pocket a whopping $2B from its ICO. There are notable figures doubting what Telegram promises to do especially when it comes to how it will handle issues like network congestion, which continues to plague most coins with Bitcoin being a prime example. Pantera Capital and Nick Tomaino are doubtful if Telegram will actually come through since they have no prototype and no pathway on how they will address network scalability and be distinct.
Now, let’s have a look at the charts:
We cannot discount the influence of the evening star pattern and February 20 bear pin bar pattern.
While we remain overly bullish and trade within a bullish breakout pattern, we cannot ignore the recent dip in prices.
At the moment, our first resistance is that minor resistance trend line connecting Bitcoin’s all-time highs and March 5 highs at around $10,700.
Since we are overly bullish, having seen how prices are bouncing off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line at $8,000, all we need to do is wait for confirmation and that will only happen if a 3-day reversal pattern, the morning star, takes shape by end of March 10. Thereafter, Bitcoin bulls can fine tune entries in a lower time frame and place safe stops below $8000.
From last week’s projection, it’s obvious that our buy triggers weren’t hit and prices slid despite the accumulation and bullish stochastics in the daily chart.
The good thing is that this depreciation is positive and represents a good buying opportunity as ETH continues to move within a horizontal channel. Our main support lies at $700 and as visible from the chart, by March 9, buyers were rejecting lower prices right at this level.
Additionally, notice that March 9 bullish candlestick is 90% below the lower BB. BB guidelines say this is an undervaluation and prices are bound to appreciate to correct it.
In my opinion, I will recommend longs especially if March 10 candlestick is bullish and a stochastics buy signal prints.
However, positional traders should wait for a break and close above the middle BB and $900 to capitalize on breakouts and potential medium to short-term bullish moves.
From last week’s analysis, traders were better off waiting for a breakout trade rather than speculating — entering short or long — because Ripple remains within a tight consolidation.
It is the inherent design of this currency but the two main levels we were watching remains pretty much intact.
Of course, the depreciation is evident but with a long lower bullish candlestick printing right at support $0.82, XRP prices can either move higher or break below it and test $0.30, which happens to be last year’s high.
I still hold my bullish skew and I recommend looking for buys when prices close above $0.90 or the middle BB in the course of this week. Otherwise, any drop past this and sellers can load their position and aim for $0.55 and $0.3.
As per our previous analysis, Bitcoin Cash traders were in the hunt waiting for confirmation of that bullish breakout.
Yes, indeed prices are still above the previous resistance trend line, now support and as long as bulls reject lower lows below $1055 or February 6 undervaluation, we are still net long.
Like most coins, March 9 candlestick may be a turning point. And in that case, the retest might be complete and the trend resumption phase underway, especially if March 10 candlestick ends up above $1150.
If that happens, buyers can look for long opportunities in a lower time frame and buy with every stochastic buy signal as they aim for $1700 and $2100.
The fall of NEO confirms that February 27 potential push and close above $150 and a bullish flag was indeed a false breakout. Fact is, that level is the upper edge of a very “volatile” consolidation which NEO is currently trending in.
As we can see from the chart, NEO prices are at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and that’s the lower limit of this consolidation.
Following yesterday’s slight appreciation, buyers need March 10 candlestick to affirm that move. Afterward, my recommendation longs for immediate targets at $110 and $130 in the short term.
However, if there are a drastic depreciation and fade of our bullish projection, $55 or last year’s highs, remains our logical support and a probable previous resistance now support.
The drop below the middle BB after LTC bulls failed to break and close above $225 has been spectacular, to say the least. From our previous projections, $180 held firm and that is where we are seeing buyers jumping in this trade and somehow signaling a bullish trend continuation.
In my opinion, after March 9 lows tested $155, the retest phase was complete and that is why — as break out pattern dictates — it is likely that buyers will take the upper end.
In that line, therefore, I recommend longs if March 10 confirms the double bar reversal pattern which was formed on March 8 and 9 and turns out bullish. Stops should be below $180 for aggressive traders.
There is nothing much that can be said only that IOTA is still under consolidation and prices are probably reversing from the lower limit at around $1.44.
Now, besides this accumulation, it is worth noting that March 9 candlestick was bullish and printed below the lower BB. This is another undervaluation and it means prices might recover.
I’m neutral and conservative traders should wait for this squeeze to explode before trading with the trade. However, aggressive traders can place long trades and aim for $2-$2.5 if March 10 candlestick is bullish. Safe stops should be below March 9 lows at $1.14.
After 7 days of relentless lows, Lumens is finally finding support at around $0.30. As we can see, these pockets of highs will only be inviting for bulls. If this is the case, buyers should begin hunting for buying in lower time frames.
Remember, from our previous projections, we were neutral on this pair after prices failed to close above $0.40. At the moment though, sellers are finding a floor at $0.30 and buyers can begin looking for buying opportunities.
Here’s the thing, if March 10 is bullish then $0.30 would be a reliable support. In turn, traders can buy with stops at $0.26 and targets at $0.40 and $0.70.
All charts courtesy of Trading View