Weekly Cryptocurrency Price Analysis: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, NEO and Other Major Coins (Feb 25)
Figure 1: BTC/USD-Daily Chart-25.02.2018
To better grasp price development of BTC, it’s better to take a top-down approach and take a look at the weekly chart. Here, you notice two things. The first is that explosion of price beginning January 2017, when Bitcoin was around $800 and when it peaked towards the end of December 2017, printing highs of around $2000.
Then afterwards, we had this nice retracement back and below the middle BB which in our analysis remains a line of great importance.
Now, here is the thing. If we paste a Fibonacci retracement tool between 2017 high-low then we notice that prices found support just above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement tool. What is important is the close of week ending February 11 close, that’s just above $7900 or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The long lower wick signifies buy pressure and the follow through last week led to a 3-bar reversal candlestick or a Morning Star pattern closing above the middle BB.
Here is what is interesting. In my view, we expected a follow through of last week’s buy pressure but that didn’t happen and it is likely that this week will end up bearish but when we look at the daily chart, we notice that prices did test the middle BB at $9400.
It was bound to happen since February 19-21 candlestick formed that Evening Star pattern which we all know is extremely bearish especially after confirmation. Going forward, buyers can look for buy opportunities if February 25 candlestick ends up bullish with ultimate targets of $11500 to $14000.
Figure 2: ETHUSD-Daily Chart-25.02.2018
The dragging effect of BTC is obviously evident in all other altcoins and we can draw all these conclusions from ETH price action.
However, unlike BTC, the effect has not been that far reaching since we can see that it lost only 60% of its value when bears drove it to as low as $540 by the second week of February 2018.
Besides, there was a retest of the middle Bb I the weekly chart and look at that nice bounce thereafter.
Like most altcoins, we saw uniform 3-bar reversal patterns and there was no confirmation from this week’s price action but it can be beneficial for those buying on dips since price action is snapping back to trend. Our first layer of support lies at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $700 and all we need is for prices to close and be sustained above $900.
As visible from the chart, ETH was pretty much in consolidation mode for the better part of the week and all we need is a close above the middle BB and $900 this week. If any bull candlestick prints and close above $900 this coming week, then buyers should fine tune entries in the 4HR chart and go buy with stop losses below the middle BB. Immediate should be $1000 but $1200 is ideal.
Figure 3: XRPUSD-Daily Chart-25.02.2018
It was an 80% drop for XRP and what we should note is that this coin is sensitive to fundamentals.
Anyhow, at the moment our focus shift at price development is the weekly chart for a better picture. Before we conclude long term bullish or bearish skew, let’s first consider this key level between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement level in the weekly chart-that’s $1.40 and $0.76 price tags.
Of course, in the short term and as long as prices are stuck within this levels then we remain bullish and I recommend buys in shorter time frames but any surge and close below the middle BB at $0.75 shall spell doom for buys.
There was a retest of weekly chart’s middle BB but that translated to a consolidation in the daily chart. All we need is a close above February 22 highs of $1 before XRP buyers can angle $1.40 and that’s should be our plan this week.
Figure 4: BCHUSD-DailyChart-25.02.2018
Even if this week’s bear pressure continues in the coming week then we shall comfortable place our buy zone between $800 and $1000.
These are key price levels in the recent past with the lower limit being lows of week ending February 11 and the immediate support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Here is the thing with BCH. From price action, it can either turn out be a bull reversal after an 80% drop or a bear breakout with week ending February 4 bearish engulfing candlestick hinting of the main short to medium term trend.
Now, if the latter is true, then all we need is a convincing depreciation of prices below $1000 if not, then any close above the resistance trend line and the middle BB at $ 1400 means buyers are in charge and immediate targets should be $1700 and $2100 respectively in the next couple of days.
Figure 5: NEOUSD-daily Chart-25.02.2018
Of all the pairs under our radar, NEO remains resilient and restricted within a $120 range.
Price erosion has not been that serious and as long as $100 buoy buyers-like it has been the case then we can be positive of last week’s bullish candlestick confirmation.
After all, there was no buy pressure last week-notice the lack of lower wicks? And it didn’t come as a surprise that bears were actually on the fore front as far as price action is concerned.
In the daily chart, it has been the same boring consolidation along the middle BB.
$130 remains our buy trigger line with the immediate support being February 23 lows at $100 or the support trend line connecting February 11 and 23 lows.
Figure 6: LTCUSD Daily Chart for February 25, 2018
LTC reaction and consequent rejection of lower lows has been conspicuous. From the weekly chart, we can easily pick out buy pressure after August 2017 highs at $100 were retested.
By doing so-and especially after that bullish candlestick was printed-a larger bullish break out pattern was confirmed.
As such, we shall only be picking buy opportunities in the daily chart now that the 3rd stage of this pattern is on course-the trend resumption phase.
In the daily chart, we can see the same pattern is panning out. A bullish break out pattern was initiated on February 15 when bulls surged past the middle BB-a key resistance line for the better part of January and after that double bar reversal pattern on February 22 and 23, buyers can look for long entries in lower time frames.
Stop loss should be below the middle BB with immediate targets at $270 or the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Figure 7: IOTUSD Daily Chart for February 25, 2018
Even though I neutral on this pair, I’m convinced-from price action-that bears are ready for hibernation.
Technically, from the weekly chart, buyers borne the brunt of sellers and after losing more than 80% of its value, we are beginning to see some bullish divergence pattern and rejection of lower lows in the daily chart.
Yes, bears have been looking for blood but scalpers can buy on dips and target $2 and $3 in the short term.
Conservatives should wait for a close above $3 and any retracement to the mid ranges between $2.5, $3 and the middle BB should be loading zones. For now, I’m neutral with a bullish skew as I anticipate a strong resistance at $2.2 or there about.
Figure 8: XLMUSD Daily Chart for February 25, 2018
Besides technicals, the fact that XLM is found at Binance and Kraken besides Bittrex should inject some buy pressure. That’s not me but studies show a direct correlation between the price and exchange listings.
Like most altcoins, the trend is the same and as long as prices remain between $0.20 and $0.40, I remain neutral. Then again, we are seeing these lower lows with recent breaks below the support trend line of our ascending wedge but these can as well be a fake bear break out especially if sellers fail to close below $0.30. Our buy triggers remain constant at $0.40.
All charts courtesy of Trading View.