Tony Abbott is looking a bit beaten down these days. He has been for a little while actually.

People who watch these things closely — and that means almost everyone in this merciless place — are noticing and reacting.

In the press gallery, that means lots of speculation over coffee, if not yet so much in print and on air, about who might replace him. Give it a couple more of those dreadful poll results showing souring public perceptions of the opposition leader, and he’ll be in their sights, just as Julia Gillard was a few months back.

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Tony Abbott at the start of Question Time today in the House of Representatives in Canberra.

On Abbott’s own side of politics, it means the backbench becoming increasingly unruly in Question Time; like barrackers for a team that is squandering a lead, they try to fire things up a bit. At times over the past couple of days it was impossible to hear the person who was supposed to be speaking because of the cacophony of shouting from the opposition side of the chamber. Yesterday four Liberal MPs became so hysterical in their interjecting that Speaker Anna Burke ordered them out of the chamber under standing order 94a, to cool down for an hour.

On the opposition front bench, it means other senior people are lifting their aggression levels. Or some of them, at least. Malcolm Turnbull still wears a mantle of weary ennui in parliament, but deputy Julie Bishop and shadow treasurer Joe Hockey are lately more performance-enhanced than Lance Armstrong. Some in the gallery see this as advertising their wares, should a change of leader become necessary.

And on the government side, it means elevated spirits and a certain arrogance. The prime minister, Julia Gillard, having swatted Abbott down in her world-famous misogyny speech a few weeks back, now gets more animated in her duels with Julie Bishop. Abbott she mostly treats contemptuously.

It is the opposition leader’s own behaviour, though, that is the real sign that things have changed.

It used to be that he would open the bowling and carry much of the attack in Question Time each day.

Not now. This week, Abbott has let the burden of attack be carried by others; the aforementioned Hockey and Bishop, Christopher Pyne, Scott Morrison and the odd backbencher.

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Mike Bowers/The Global Mail

Why, even Malcolm Turnbull was allowed a question on Wednesday.

This was extraordinary. Turnbull’s previous question was on September 13, and prior to that it was May, and prior to that he’d been allowed just one for the whole term of this parliament. Not that Turnbull’s people keep score.

Yes, it seems that the government’s mantra, endlessly chanted, that Abbott is overly aggressive and negative, having got through to the public, is now getting through to Abbott and those who advise him.

There’s no doubt in the minds of those who watch proceedings closely the sexism thing had a lot to do with it. Abbott, aware that he had a problem with women, arranged for his wife to be trotted out for humanising interviews in various friendly media — mostly the regime-change-focused Murdoch press.

This was to springboard his attack on the government over the Peter Slipper text messages business. Abbott would assert his sensitive guy credentials by attacking the government’s continued support for a man who compared female genitalia to shell-less shellfish.

Then it all went dreadfully wrong, because Gillard was ready for him.

But the sexism issue is just a part of it. There is also the fact that the scare campaign against the carbon tax which he had beaten up over 18 months fell flat once the tax was introduced.

Yesterday Climate Change Minister Greg Combet took some pleasure in reminding us of just a few of the apocalyptic predictions Abbott had made about the new tax, and comparing them with the actual outcomes, now the tax was operating.

Combet could do this with precision because new inflation figures are now in.

He noted the opposition leader had predicted huge price hikes in the cost of Weet-Bix. But in reality, cereal prices fell 0.5 per cent in quarter. Likewise the price of milk would soar, said Abbott. Dairy products also declined in price by 0.5 per cent.

He gave a couple more examples. You get the feeling that the government will now have an extensive list of Abbott’s wild predictions, and factual rebuttals, to trot out as needed between now and the next election.

And Abbott’s other big scare tactic, relating to asylum seekers, is not so potent now either. Yes, they keep arriving in numbers and yes, this is not popular with the public, but the government has now cynically adopted so much of the Coalition policy on boat people that both sides of politics now look pretty much as punitive.

So what have Abbott and his crew left to be aggressive and negative about?

The dreary non-issue of whether the government’s budget maintains a slim surplus or slides to a slim deficit?

That has certainly been the focus this week. Ho hum. Even most economists don’t care. Far less the general public.

But back to Combet, who finished his answer with a suggestion that it was about time the opposition got a new leader. He suggested either Hockey or Turnbull and, just for laughs included a possible “roughie”, the colourless Kevin Andrews.

“Get someone who can tell the truth,” he snarled.

Well, there was hubbub. The government benches roared with amusement. The opposition benches roared with outrage.

But Tony Abbott? He made no interjection. He made no eye contact. He stared fixedly at some papers in his lap.